Texas Politics In The Early 20Th Century Essays - Texas, Old Right

Texas Politics In The Early 20Th Century Conservative Texas In the book, The Establishment in Texas Politics, by George Norris Green, Mr. Green describes how, since 1939, fiscal and social conservatives have governed Texas. Anglo-Texas nationalism supported the idea of Texas independence from groups including the federal government as it pertains to laws overseeing business practices. From the traditionalistic-individualistic scheme of Texas politics emerged a philosophy of material self-interest above anything that might be considered fair to other groups within the borders of the state. To make matters worse (or better, depending on your own political persuasion) Texas at that time was a one-party system, and the powers that be relied on a consistently low level of voter participation and the powerful influence of special interest lobby groups. Interest groups sprang forth from the business landscape tilled by capitalist pioneers such as H.L. Hunt, Sid Richardson and Clint Murchison. These independent millionaires were concerned with preserving capital and enhancing shareholder value by reducing the interference by governmental socialists who sought to redistribute wealth though the use of social programs. These men, and many more like them, cared little about government and wanted no intervention in their economic affairs. Their attitudes were consistent with the popular values of the Jeffersonian Democrats of the nineteenth century: The less government the better, local control of what little government there was, and freedom from economic regulation, or laissez-faire. Three men, W. Lee O'Daniel, Coke Stevenson and Beauford Jester came to epitomize Texas conservatives during this period of Texas history. Each man, whether they knew it or not, practiced a type of pseudo laissez-faire that would later be known as Social-Darwinism; the belief that individuals who prosper and rise to the top of the socioeconomic ladder are worthy and deserve their riches, while those who sink to the bottom are unworthy and deserve their poverty. Social-Darwinist argue that people become rich and powerful because they are intelligent, energetic and self-disciplined, whereas those who become or remain poor do so because they are stupid, lazy or otherwise given to embrace certain destructive vices. Socio-economic status, thus, was thought to be a result of natural selection. Further, it was thought that as business flourished so would everyone flourish. As it has been stated, A rising tide lifts all boats. Wilbert Lee (Pappy) O'Daniel was born in Malta, Ohio on March 11 1890. O'Daniel was educated in public schools in Kansas, he later completed a two year curriculum at Salt City Business College in Hutchinson, Kansas, in 1908. Upon graduation he worked his way up as a stenographer, bookkeeper and sales manager of a flour milling company. He organized his own flour concern in 1935 in Fort Worth. He began a series of radio shows featuring the Light Crust Dough Boys. At the urging of his radio fans, O'Daniel ran for the govennorship of Texas in 1938. His entire platform consisted of the Ten Commandments, the virtues of his own Hillbilly Flour, tax cuts for business and the industrialization of Texas. Given O'Daniel's business background, his philosophy was that of no corporate taxes and he was of course, anti-labor. He instead offered up a tax plan, secretly written by manufacturing interest groups that amounted to a multiple sales tax (a regressive tax borne by people least able to pay). He also sought to attack labor unions by writing the O'Daniel Anti-Violence Act but the courts discarded most of the provisions. At this time, O'Daniel began replacing members of the University of Texas Regents in an attempt to limit academic freedom and to eliminate communists who he saw as behind the pro labor movement. One of the more interesting characters in Texas political history would have to be Coke Stevenson. Born in a log cabin in Mason county Texas, Coke started his business career early. As a teenager he hauled freight from Junction to Brady. He worked his way up from rancher, banker, lawyer and legislator. After he won the governorship Stevenson began to demonstrate his fiscal and socially conservative ideology. He had amassed lucrative oil lease income and he opposed any tax levied on it, he also opposed gas rationing Texas during the second World War, the obvious implication here was oil prices would increase with greater

Forecasting Canadas GDP Essays

Forecasting Canadas GDP Essays Forecasting Canadas GDP Essay Forecasting Canadas GDP Essay Two recessions can be observed from the Time Series plot from above, one in 1980 lasting up until 1982. The other recession was in 1989 lasting for 3 years till 1992. Canada had changed from a country producing and exporting mainly primary products to one that is increasingly producing and exporting manufactured goods. In the 1980s, machinery and equipment joined automotive products among the countrys leading exports; at the same time, the importance of natural resource product declined. Canada was hard hit by the recession of the early 1980s, with interest rates, unemployment, and inflation all running higher than in the United States. The effects of the recession on minerals and manufacturing were especially severe. By the end of 1982, all mining operations in the Yukon were closed, and throughout the country, more than 70,000 of 115,000 miners were unemployed. The economy recovered during the mid-1980s, and Canadas economic growth rate was amongst the highest of OECD countries during 1984-86. The recession of the early 1990s was an economic recession that hit much of the world in 1990-91. The Canadian economy had been affected by the gulf war. A Value Added Tax, the free trade agreement with the U.S and a tight monetary policy that culminated in a serious recession. The recession that occurs in the third quarter of 2008 was another economic recession that hit most of the world. : Between the third quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of last year, the countrys real GDP in Canada fell 3. 3 per cent, compared with 3. 7 per cent in the United States and bigger declines in Europe and Japan. 3 The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada expanded 0. 30 percent in the third quarter of 2010 over the previous quarter. From 1961 until 2010, Canadas average quarterly GDP Growth was 0.84 percent reaching an historical high of 3. 33 percent in December of 1963 and a record low of -1. 80 percent in March of 2009. Canadas economy is diversified and highly developed. Measures of Forecasting Errors The mean absolute deviation (MAD) measures forecast accuracy by averaging the magnitudes of the forecast errors (the absolute value of errors). The MAD is the same in the units as the original series and provides an average size of the miss regardless of direction. Equation 1: Mean Absolute Deviation MAD= The mean squared error (MSE) is another method for evaluating a forecasting technique. Each error or residual is squared; these are then summed and divided by the number of observations. This approach penalizes large forecasting errors, since errors are squared. This is important as the technique that produces moderate errors may well be preferable to one that usually has small errors but occasionally yields extremely large ones. Equation 2: Mean Squared Error MSE= The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is computed by finding the absolute error in each period, dividing this by the actual observed value for that period, and averaging these absolute percentage errors. The result is then multiplied by 100 and expressed as a percentage. This approach is useful when the error relative to the respective size of the time series value is important in evaluating the accuracy of the forecast. The MAPE is especially useful when the Yt values are large. The MAPE has no units of measurements (it is a percentage) and can be used to compare the accuracy of the same or different techniques on two entirely different series. MAPE cannot be calculated if any of the Yt are zero. Equation 3: Mean Absolute Percentage Error MAPE= To determine whether a forecasting method is biased (consistently forecasting low or high). The mean percentage error (MPE) is used in these cases. It is computed by finding the error in each period, dividing this by the actual value for that period, and then averaging these percentage errors. The result is typically multiplied by 100 and expressed as a percentage. If the forecasting approach is unbiased, the MPE will produce a number that is close to zero. If the result is a large negative percentage, the forecasting method is consistently overestimating. If the result is a large positive percentage, the forecasting method is consistently underestimating.